July 2010 year-over-year sales plummeted across all categories…sometimes 40, 50, 60%…as compared with July 2009.  While we’re seeing drops across the board, they haven’t backed off as much as they did last month.  Hopefully, this turns out to be a positive (b/c we need some positive news).

(Disclaimer: the Aug 2010 sales numbers likely will increase slightly over the next week.  It sometimes takes Realtors a few days to enter in final sales numbers in the Charlottesville Area MLS system…so there is a slight delay in the actual numbers.  While I do expect the sales numbers to bump a little, it’s not going to be a significant jump…maybe just a few sales here or there.)

Overall, total August 2010 sales in the Charlottesville MSA (which Nest considers to be Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Louisa, Greene, and Nelson) were off about 30% from last August (233 vs 162) .  Compare that with the approximate 38% drop in July.  Total inventory increased from 2809 to 2906 – a modest 3% increase.  However, combined with the drop in sales, the total market inventory is almost 6 months higher than it was in August 2009 (12.05 months vs. 17.93 months).

Yet, the increase of inventory between July and Aug 2010 is less (on a percentage basis) than what we saw in July/Aug 2009.  Here’s the stats:

INVENTORY LEVELS

July 2009: 8.89 months
Aug 2009: 12.05 months (35.5% monthly jump)

July 2010: 14.89 months
Aug 2010: 17.93 months (20% monthly jump)

TOTAL MSA DETACHED SALES

Total sales dropped from 169 to 127 year-over-year.  The biggest concern is that inventory popped from 11.48 months in 2009 to 16.11 in 2010 – that’s a 40% increase in monthly inventory levels.

I’m not going to keep re-iterating the same thing in this post.  (We’ll visit some specific sub-categories of the Charlottesville real estate market over the next few days.) Here’s the gist: sales are still down.  We’re suffering a major hangover from the tax credit.  We need to be glad that the tax credit wasn’t extended and the market will continue to correct itself.  How long will it take?  We wish we knew.  But the recovery hinges on a couple of different factors:

1. We need positive employment numbers. It’s going to take a couple of months of positive employment numbers for people to start feeling good about the economy again.  Until unemployment decreases, housing won’t bottom.

2. Inventory levels will need to come down…significantly. Inventory levels in the Charlottesville area are way too high.  14, 16, 18, etc months of inventory is definitely an oversupply.  And oversupply leads to downward pressure on prices/values.

For buyers, there are some values out there.  Admittedly, not all homes are priced according to the current market conditions.  You may have to dig a little, but there are values to be had.  And if you are selling your home, it’s simple: be realistic with price, make sure it’s in top-notch condition, and make sure your home is marketed well.  Houses that fit those criteria are selling.

Sales in Montgomery Ridge have been brisk in 2010.  With the introduction of additional home sites and new builders (which brought along some lower price points), homes have been snapped up at a healthy rate as compared to previous years.  So far in 2010, there have been 14 closed sales…with an additional 5 under contract.  Considering there were a total of 21 sales over the last 3 years combined (including just 1 closing in 2009), Montgomery Ridge has seen quite a jump in sales.

Montgomery Ridge Homes for sale

August 2008 – July 2009

Home Sales: 227

Median Sold Price: $335,000

Months of Inventory: 12.52

August 2009 – July 2010

Home Sales: 295 (up 29.9%)

Median Sold Price: $340,500 (up 1.6%)

Months of Inventory: 9.60 (down 23.3%)

Clearly the last 12 months has proven to be a positive time for home sales throughout Barracks, Rio, 29, and Earlysville.  However, as we have discovered, just about every segment of the Charlottesville real estate market has seen a large jump in sales during that same period.  The positive trends seem to stop in July, where sales have been down significantly from the previous July…sometimes over 60% off.

But while sales in the Albemarle HS district were off, but not as much as some other segments of the Charlottesville and Albemarle real estate market.  Overall, home sales in July were off 21% from the previous July (30 vs. 38).  However, the percentage of list-to-sale in July 2010 was up significantly from July 2009 (95.18% vs. 85.52%).  That’s a fairly dangerous number to pin positive hopes on though.  As we’ve talked about before, the list-to-sale ratio can be gamed a bit and isn’t always completely reliable.

The increase in jobs from NGIC hirings may be a factor helping to prop up this segment of the market.  While the total number of NGIC jobs will not keep the Charlottesville real estate market alive by itself, it certainly won’t hurt.  Those jobs have been a nice shot in the arm to the market over the last year…and the additional jobs over the next year will assist in our local real estate recovery.

Earlysville Homes For Sale

29 North Homes For Sale

Albemarle Real Estate

Charlottesville Neighborhoods

This time, we’re taking a look at single  family home sales in Western Albemarle.  As with our other recent data, year-over-year Western Albemarle home sales are up significantly.  Here’s the rundown:

August 2008 – July 2009

Home Sales: 190

Median Sold Price: $477,500

Months of Inventory: 14.96

August 2009 – July 2010

Home Sales: 239 (up 25.8%)

Median Sold Price: $400,000 (down 16.2%)

Months of Inventory: 10.89 (down 27.2%)

The combination of the tax credit and lower prices definitely spurred home sales throughout Charlottesville and Albemarle during the first half of 2010. However, as we’ve noted before in our market reports, July 2010 sales dropped significantly in Western Albemarle (from 32 in 2009 to just 17 this past July).

So, it seems like no matter where we look, the story stays the same.  On the bright side, sales are up significantly over the most recent 12 month period.  But sales in July are down significantly year-over-year.  We’ll see how August and September play out.  By all accounts, we expect sales to be off from last year.  But we’ll have to wait and see.

(Note: Western Albemarle is made up of Crozet and Ivy)

To see current listing inventory:

Crozet homes for sale

Ivy homes for sale

In addition to sales being up, Days on Market for single family homes in Old Trail has dropped from 199 to 73 over the last 12 months.  Months of inventory has also fallen dramatically – from 17.6 to 8.5.

There are a few factors that are playing into these numbers.  First of all, the Old Trail Village Center and community pool were completed last spring and summer.  These 2 amenities were long promised and removed a bit of uncertainty from skeptical buyers.  Second, a new line of smaller, more affordable homes from Craig Builders, Piedmont Construction, Eagle Construction, and some other builders has offered more options to potential buyers.  Lastly, prices of lots and homes have come back down to earth..making the entire neighborhood more affordable.

The median single family home sold in Old Trail during the period from Aug 08 to July 09 was $618,000.  However, that number dropped to $467,500 from Aug 09 to July 2010.  This drop in median sale price is mostly attributed to the new housing options in the $300k range…something that wasn’t available in years past.

Expect the median home sale price for single family homes in Old Trail to continue to drop over the next year.  The majority of activity will be centered around it’s newest phase in the Village Commons…which features homes in the high $200s and low $300s.  While the Upper Ballard and Creekside sections feature higher priced homes, lot prices have come down a fair amount in those areas and the $800k+ sales will be few and far between.

As of August 4, 2010, there are 24 homes for sale in Forest Lakes.

Nearby areas include:

Charlottesville real estate

Earlysville homes for sale

Clearly, the end of the homebuyer’s tax credit has affected sales as buyers were rare in May and June of this year.  The tax credit did seem to stimulate some activity during the first part of 2010.  In fact, July was the first month in which total sales in 2010 did not outperform total sales in 2009.  Every other month in 2010 produced higher sales than 2009.

Inventory levels of homes continue to climb throughout the region.  In July 2010, there were 814 single family homes for sale in Albemarle County…as compared to 761 in July 2009.  Since sales in July dropped and inventory increased, the months of inventory in July almost doubled…jumping from 7.11 to 14.03.  That represents the biggest monthly increase since this past December-January.

Though buyer activity level in the market has increased in the last 30 days, contracts are down from 2009 levels and inventory seems to be increasing.  As the summer buying season begins to come to a close, I would expect to see monthly inventory levels to start climbing from the current levels (around 14 months) to 17 or 18 in the next month or two.  (This is fairly typical since there are fewer buyers and serious sellers don’t begin to take their homes off the market until around Halloween).

Stay tuned over the next week and we’ll take a closer look at some of the areas within Albemarle, including Ivy, Crozet, and 29 North.

Still Meadow is located just north of the City of Charlottesville on 154 acres overlooking the Rivanna River. The neighborhood is comprised of 135 homes, varying in size, from 2,000 to over 5,000 square feet. Per the neighborhood covenants, all homes are comprised of at least 30% brick or “substantial masonry”, all homes have at least two-car garages. Downtown Charlottesville is less than ten minutes away and shopping, dining and recreational activities are available within a five-minute drive. Still Meadow homes are all members of the community swim and tennis club.

Still Meadow homes for sale

29 North

The general consensus among our agents is that the market feels pretty soft…and we have some statistics to back up that feeling. For example, market-wide, showings are down showings are down (about 25%) year-over-year. (More to come in a later post on that stat).

However, the stats for closings in June for the city of Charlottesville are actually up…dramatically…year-over-year. In 2009, there were 23 closings in June…compare that to 57 in 2010. Yep…23 last year and 57 this year. Quite different than the feeling out there. We’re actually a little surprised by this. Check out some other favorable stats:

- The total inventory of single family homes in Charlottesville is only up slightly (from 257 last year to 268). But with the big jump in sales, there are currently only 4.2 months of inventory in this category.
- Home in June sold for 97% of list price….compared with 93% in 2009.
- Days on Market for sold homes is down from 116 to 82.
- Median sold price is down only $3000 from 2009 to 2010.

By just looking at these numbers, you could declare that we’re in a Buyer’s Market for single family homes in Charlottesville. We don’t feel like we’re quite ready to declare the market is back…but these are some welcome signs.

We’ll keep you posted on some other Charlottesville and Albemarle County real estate market segments. Stay tuned.

Homes for sale in Waylands Grant.