With the exception of a small few, every homeowner in Charlottesville and throughout the country is looking for positive real estate news.  As compared to 2009 – when there wasn’t much – we’re starting to see some good news starting to trickle in…and that’s a good thing.

REAL Trends just reported that Long and Foster reported that sales in all of their major markets were up year-over-year .

Here’s a blurb:

According to a recent report from Long & Foster Real Estate Inc., all of the reported regions are up     from the prior year in total units sold, with the Washington, D.C. region up 13 percent with sales of   16,989 residential units. Roanoke is up 23 percent, with 759 units sold; Richmond is up 21 percent     with 2,962 units sold; Baltimore/Towson saw a 34 percent increase with sales of 6,310 units; the         Virginia Beach/Norfolk/Newport News metropolitan region saw a 45 percent increase with 4,784  units sold; and Philadelphia was up 35 percent with 9,995 units sold.

Washington, D.C. shows signs of continued recovery with average sales prices rising two percent over a year ago. Average sales prices are down slightly versus a year ago in the other markets throughout the region.  In addition, all markets show the final sales price as a percent of the list price has increased or stabilized, suggesting that sellers are pricing closer to market value.  In the category of total volume dollar sold, all markets saw an increase over 2008.

And this article from Inman News, which states that the National Association of Realtors is reporting that January year-over-year home sales rose 11.5%.  The report also included this stat: The Northeast also saw the highest year-over-year increase in sales at 22.4 percent.

So what does this mean for the Charlottesville real estate market?  Well, Charlottesville is what I call a ‘trickle down’ market.  Our local economy, while strong for a small town, isn’t setting the stage nationally like New York and DC do.  Because of that, we feel the effects (positive and negative) about 6 months (sometimes more, sometimes less) after the big cities.  The DC and Northern Virginia market is our biggest influencer – mainly because of proximity and because that area generates so many new buyers in Charlottesville and Albemarle County.

For example, the Charlottesville real estate really caught fire about 6 months after DC did back in 2004.  We’ve seen some positive impact from the increase in DC and Northern Virginia sales over the past year.  I’ve been hearing anectdotal evidence for 12 months that the DC/NoVa market has picked up.  It seems as though prices went up more quickly there and have come down quicker…thus helping to have a positive impact on sales numbers.

If sales are, in fact, up in DC/NoVa, Virginia Beach, Richmond, and the Northeast, this is a positive sign for Charlottesville, Albemarle, and all of Central Virginia.  Without hard data to support it, those are probably the 4 biggest markets where people move from when they are moving to Charlottesville and Albemarle.

One potential caveat: neither report addressed average or median sales price and whether those numbers were up or down.  I’m imagining sales prices were probably down…otherwise, this would have been mentioned.  If this is the case, Charlottesville and Albemarle can expect a little bit of ‘trickle down’ bargain hunters from those markets.

Why?  Well, if Joe Buyer sold his house for $15k less than he expected in DC/NoVa, he’s got $15k less to spend in Cville.

Stay tuned for some updates on Charlottesville and Albemarle inventory levels, sales prices, and sales statistics.  As the month ends, we’ll spend some time digging through numbers.

However, there were some positive signs.  January sales of Albemarle single family homes increased from 22 in 2009 to 27 in 2010.  Total monthly volume also increased (though slightly).  Current inventory levels and months of inventory did drop fairly significantly.  Inventory levels dropped about 14% from 2009 levels and the months of inventory is down from 29 months of inventory to 20.25 months.

Inventory reductions and the drop in months of inventory are two key factors in price stabilization and market recovery.  Many industry experts are linking our market recovery to lower inventory levels.  The Albemarle County real estate market has shown some positive signs over the last few months.  With interest rates hovering below 5%, you can expect a steady flow of activity over the next few months.

To check out these January real estate statistics in depth, see the chart below…

Download your copy here – 2009 Year End Nest Realty Group Nest Report (PDF)

Please let us know what questions, comments or clarifications you have.

Jim Duncan is one of the founding partners of Nest, Associate Broker and is a Charlottesville Realtor who writes at RealCentralVA, RealCrozetVA and AgentGenius.

So, back to this video.  There were 5 or 6 ‘aha’ moments for me in this particular video, but I wanted to focus on his analysis of inventory levels. The Charlottesville and Albemarle County real estate market has taken a hit over the past few years…as have most real estate markets nationally.  If any of us could predict the future or had a crystal ball, we probably would be sitting on a beach somewhere.  But one of Steve’s comments about how current housing inventory levels can be a future indicator of pricing/value was particularly poignant.  Here’s the gist of it:

The chart is very simple and is based on historical real estate statistics (nationally).  Basically, it draws a direct correlation to current inventory levels and what prices/values will do over the upcoming 12 month period.  It’s basic supply and demand, but it makes sense.

So, I decided to take a closer look at Charlottesville real estate inventory levels.  It was pretty interesting.

I took a look at Charlottesville single family homes, Charlottesville town homes, Albemarle County single family homes, and Albemarle County town homes. Here’s the quick recap: Charlottesville housing inventory levels are lower than Albemarle County levels, overall (location, location, location).  Single family homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle have higher current levels than attached town town homes in Albemarle. This can be explained purely by price – lower priced home and town homes are selling faster than higher priced homes.  Reason: demand.  There is more demand for homes in lower price points because there are more buyers.

But, overall, you can see current inventory levels ranging from almost 13 months for single family homes in Albemarle…down to just over 6 months for Albemarle County town homes.  So, in reality, those town homes in Albemarle are actually in a balanced market.  Based on the above chart, you could expect attached home prices in Albemarle to stay flat over the next 12 months.  However, detached homes in Albemarle are hovering around the 14 months of inventory levels…and you could predict that those homes could be in for double-digit depreciation in the coming year.

I don’t think it’s that simple, though.  So, I dug a little deeper into the single family homes category.  I looked at the average price for each of the categories (Albemarle single  family homes and Charlottesville single family homes) over the last 4 years.  I then took that number and compared the inventory levels above and below the average price.

I found a significant differences in inventory levels when I compared homes above and below the 4-year average.  The biggest difference was with Albemarle single family homes.  Inventory levels for homes above the average price were almost twice that of inventory levels below the average price.  As expected, Charlottesville homes inventory levels for homes priced higher than the average were more, but not twice as high.

And here’s the chart:

So, to sum up: if you take Steve Harney’s chart to heart, higher priced single family homes in Albemarle County could be hit the hardest over the next 12 months.  With inventory levels above 21 months (almost 2 years), it’s a lot of inventory to absorb.  Hopefully, interest rates can stay steady and buyer affordability doesn’t become more of an issue.

Would love to get your thoughts on the chart and what your predictions are for these sub-segments of the market.

Obviously, Charlottesville condominium conversions have come to a grinding halt – the cost and risk associated just isn’t worth it for developers.  While new condominium inventory isn’t increasing, sales are still decreasing.  The lower cost of Charlottesville town homes and single family homes has caused would-be condo buyers to choose town homes or detached homes instead.  And with demand falling off, prices have gone back to 2004 levels.

Charlottesville condominium sales peaked in 2006 (The Year of the Condo) at 275 sales in Charlottesville City and 306 in Albemarle County.  Since then, the numbers have dropped pretty significantly.  2009 area condominium sales were 83 in Albemarle County and 66 in Charlottesville.

Unfortunately for area condos, all signs are still pointing in the wrong direction.  Sales prices are down.  Median prices are down.  Price per square foot is down.  Total sales volume is down.  And Days on Market are up.  The lone bright spot on the local condo scene lies in some recent Charlottesville City condo stats: sales in the 4th Quarter 2009 were up from 12 to 14 as compared to 4th Quarter 2008.

What lies ahead for condos?  Some predict that condominiums may be the last section of the local housing market to recover – they believe that only after single family homes and town homes stabilize will condominium values stabilize and improve.  I’m not so sure it’s such a broad answer, though.  While I do believe that, as a whole, condos may be behind single family and attached in terms of recovery timeframe, I think that some condominiums that are well located may see quicker recovery.  In the end, it’s ‘Location.  Location.  Location.’

Thankfully, the rental market throughout Central Virginia is extremely strong right now.  So many condominium owners are able to rent their properties without much of a problem.  And while being an ‘accidental landlord’ may not be their first choice, there are plenty of worse places in the Country to own rental property.

But here’s a little more positive news for Charlottesville condominiums: some of the newer condo communities have received or are about to receive FHA Financing approval. Hence, financing will be easier to obtain…and, thus, easier to sell.  Expect the FHA Approved communities to be part of the condominium recovery.

Walker Square Condominiums

1800 JPA

Hessian Hills

Riverbend Condominiums

Woodlands of Charlottesville

Claremont at Carriage Hill

Overlook Condominiums

Turtle Creek Charlottesville

The Villas at Southern Ridge

One of the commenters on the RealCrozetVA site recommended that people concerned about the possible Crozet library closing should contact the Chairman of the Board of Supervisors for the White Hall district, Ann Mallek.  Her information is as follows:

Ann H. Mallek
White Hall Supervisor
P.O. Box 207, Earlysville, Virginia 22936
Home: 434-978-1150
Email: amallek@albemarle.org

If you would like to post other ideas so Crozet citizens can voice their concerns, please post in the comments section.

There are definitely pockets of Charlottesville that are outperforming other parts of Central Virginia.  Actually, I could probably make the argument that a few small pockets (Martha Jefferson Neighborhood, North Downtown, Lewis Mountain neighborhood) in the City may actually be appreciating (gasp…remember that word?).   Those unique areas/streets are typically located within walking distance to the Downtown Mall in parts where the homes are in great condition and full of character.

However, overall, Charlottesville real estate has suffered just like other parts of the County (and the Country).  Because of location, some Charlottesville neighborhoods (like Belmont, for example) rode the real estate wave to the peak…and have, therefore, had a long fall from the top.  Investors definitely pumped up prices in certain pockets of Charlottesville.

Charlottesville home sale numbers haven’t quite recovered like some other parts of Central Virginia (like Ivy, for example, where home sales are showing signs of recovery).  2009 Charlottesville home sales were off about 15% from 2008…and 2008 numbers were off about 12% from 2007.  The final quarter of 2009 did show some positive momentum in that sales were up over the same period in 2008.

Here is a quick overview of some other signs in the Charlottesville real estate market:

- Overall 2009 Inventory (8.79 months) is slightly higher than 2008 (8.03) and 2007 (7.86)

- Total sales volume was about $20 million lower in 2009 than 2008 (from $110m to about $90m)

- List-to-sale ratios were down again in 2009…though slightly.  In 2009, Charlottesville homes sold for approximately 95.11% of their final list price.  In 2008, it was 95.79% and 2007 was 97.39%

- Days on Market in 2008 (102 days) vs. 2009 (100 days) are essentially a wash

So, there still seems to be some downward movement in Charlottesville real estate.  The positive signs are that things seem to be correcting.  As prices drop a little more, I expect to see sales jump.  We’re definitely seeing buyers in the marketplace…they’re just waiting for the right opportunity.

A few more quick Charlottesville real estate statistics:

- November and December 2009 total sales significantly outpaced 2007 and 2008
- Inventory levels in Western Albemarle were significantly down in the final quarter of 2009 as compared to similar timeframes over the past 2 years. 4th quarter inventory in 2007 and 2008 averaged about 15 months. In 2009, it was around 10 months.
- Median sold price is down in 2009 is down approximately 5.5%

Overall, Crozet real estate and Ivy real estate have been stronger and slightly more resilient markets over the last few years as compared to some other areas of Charlottesville. Their resiliency can be tied to a few factors that makes them desirable places to live.

Western Albemarle Real Estate Statistics

Ivy homes for sale

Crozet homes for sale

Taking a look at the one-year moving median of the Charlottesville area real estate market shows us that prices definitely backed off in 2009. However, it’s interesting to note that prices actually held up during the first half of the year…then took a pretty big hit during the second half of the year.  June 2009 seemed to be the beginning of the price drops. The 7, 30, and 90-day moving medians began to drop in that range…and then the 200-day followed suit later in the year.

But take a look at the end of 2009 – there was another crossover…this time with positive signs.  The 30-day moving median showed positive signs against the 90 and 200 day medians.  And the 90-day chart seems to be moving upward as compared to the 200-day.  If this trend continues, it could prove to be good news for the real estate market through Charlottesville, Crozet, Ivy, and all of Central Virginina.

However, it’s just a small blip on the radar and we’ll need to keep a close eye on things.

4. Still Meadow
Still Meadow is located just north of the City of Charlottesville on 154 acres overlooking the Rivanna River. The neighborhood is comprised of 135 homes, varying in size, from 2,000 to over 5,000 square feet. Per the neighborhood covenants, all homes are comprised of at least 30% brick or “substantial masonry”, all homes have at least two-car garages. Downtown Charlottesville is less than ten minutes away and shopping, dining and recreational activities are available within a five-minute drive. Still Meadow homes are all members of the community swim and tennis club.

3. Fieldbrook/Raintree
Fieldbrook and Raintree are two adjacent neighborhoods situated just off near the intersection of Route 29 and Rio Road. Fieldbrook and Raintree homes typically range in size from 1600-3000 square feet, offer a variety of architectural styles, and were mainly built throughout the 1980s. These neighborhoods are popular choices if you are looking for an established Albemarle County neighborhood that is convenient to both Route 29 and Downtown Charlottesville.

2. Hollymead
Hollymead features a nice mix of homes and housing types ranging from condominiums to townhomes to single family homes. This community – situated in between Forest Lakes North and South – is close to schools, parks, and major shopping. Hollymead condominiums and town homes in Hollymead are newer and offer distinctive amenities, including pools. The single family homes were built in the 60s, 70s, and 80s and feature a variety of architectural styles. Easy access to major employers like NGIC, Crutchfield, GE, and the UVA Research Park.

1. Forest Lakes
As one of the largest neighborhoods in Charlottesville and Albemarle County with approximately 1,400 homes, Forest Lakes is divided into two main sections – Forest Lakes North and Forest Lakes South. Community amenities include: six beautiful lakes, wooded lots, miles of walking/biking paths, two large swimming pools, two basketball courts, 10 tennis courts (8 lighted), two soccer fields, and a fitness center. Some Forest Lakes homes also have beautiful mountain or water views. Forest Lakes real estate options include single family homes and townhomes. Residents in some areas of the neighborhood can walk to shopping and dining, but all residents are a quick drive to Hollymead Town Center. Forest Lakes is a popular option if you are looking for NGIC real estate choices.

Want to learn more about Charlottesville real estate and these Albemarle County neighborhoods? Contact a Nest Realtor today.

Forest Lakes homes for sale

Hollymead homes for sale